Public industry sources only

US CRE broker brief — financing squeeze and Class A / secondary split

September 2026 · Phone demo · Not an Aon product

Financing squeeze

FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 bp; lower bound 3.75%. 16 of 18 policymakers anticipate at least one additional quarter-point hike before year-end, placing the rate at a lower bound of 4% by December and holding through 2027. [Marcus & Millichap]

10-Year Treasury closed at 4.94% as of Sept. 17 (highest since 2007). Average cap rate across major property types remained in the upper-6% range in 2Q; with 10-year at 4.94%, implied spread narrowed to about 180 bp. That compressed premium leaves less room for leverage and relative return. Elevated rates limit near-term financing relief; pressure on acquisition financing and loans approaching maturity. Lender liquidity remains strong, but higher rates may widen buyer–seller expectation gap. Elevated construction financing costs could slow development, limiting new supply. [Marcus & Millichap]

NAR’s September report (July 2026 macro print): Fed kept rates unchanged, but higher 10-year Treasury yields kept upward pressure on borrowing costs, limiting CRE financing relief despite resilient private demand. [NAR]

Class A vs secondary

Office: Gradual stabilization; annual absorption positive. Improvement concentrated in Class A. Class B under pressure despite inventory removal; Class C continued to lose tenants. Elevated vacancy and modest rent growth limit breadth of recovery. [NAR]

Multifamily: Absorption exceeded deliveries for first time in nearly five years. Class A benefited most (demand outpacing new supply); Class B resilient; Class C still posting tenant losses. Regional unevenness; oversupplied Sun Belt still under pressure. [NAR]

Broker takeaway: underwrite the rate stack first — a ~4.94% 10-year and ~180 bp cap-rate spread is a financing constraint, not a timing dip. Steer buyers and lenders toward Class A income-growth assets; treat Class C (and weaker Class B office) as occupancy and exit-risk, not a rate-cut recovery trade. [MM] [NAR]

Sources

  1. Marcus & Millichap Research Services — Fed Raises the Overnight Rate, Reinforcing a High-Cost CRE Environment. Source link (fixture fetched 2026-09-24)
  2. National Association of REALTORS® — September 2026 Commercial Real Estate Market Insights Report. Source link (fixture fetched 2026-09-24)